More arrangements (11MM, open to Crab)

[Yasuki Ryoichi]

Ryoichi looked a bit bleary after the banquet and the late night skirmish, but he squared his shoulders and approached Masahiko's office to present the latest proposals.

"Kaiu-dono?" he asked. "Would you have a moment to review some proposed arrangements with the Phoenix and Tortoise clans?"

[Kaiu Masahiko]

"Sure, lay it on the table, Yasuki-san. Let's have a look."

[Yasuki Ryoichi]

Ryoichi presented a writeup of a proposed agreement with the Phoenix, and another agreement with the Tortoise.

"I'm quite happy with the Phoenix deal, which should give us a northern port, a blessing guaranteeing a good harvest, and an experienced gunso," Ryoichi said. "Shiba Ryusei and the Phoenix have been good partners for us so far."

"The Tortoise arrangement is a bit speculative in that we are investing in their future," he continued. "But I think it could be worth it to build stronger ties with them."

"I hope Kaiu-dono will approve. But let me know if there is anything you would have us change."

[Yasuki Ryoichi]

"If they meet with your approval, I'm hopeful that we can present them at Court today," Ryoichi added. "With the Ruby Champion presiding, the timing would be particularly good for it."

[Kaiu Masahiko]

Proposed Phoenix deal is:

Shiba Tatsuya marries Hida Setsuko (joining the Crab)
Crab provide 1 Copper
Phoenix and Crab jointly construct and operate a naval base in the Shigi prefecture in Phoenix lands, with ships of both clans able to dock, trade and resupply here. Merchant protection patrols from his base would be OK, but no major war fighting from this base unless a joint operation against a common enemy.
Phoenix will perform the spiritual blessing on the Shiozaki prefecture in Crab lands
Mutual naval cooperation against pirates and gaijin, and to rescue distressed sailors

Proposed Tortoise deal is:

Marriage of Kasuga Mineko to Kuni Eijiro (joining the Crab)
Mutual aid against pirates (with pirates defined as "seen pirating" or "known pirates according to a magistrate") and to help distressed sailors
The Yasuki bank will invest a 1/3rd share in 3 Kasuga trading ships, earning back 1/3rd of the profits from those ships. If both sides are happy after 6 months, this may expand to financing more ships by mutual agreement.
The Kasuga offer training to interested Crab; the Yasuki offer training to interested Tortoise.

"Yep, those'll fit in nicely."

[Yasuki Ryoichi]

"Ahh, excellent," Ryoichi said, taking back the scrolls and rolling them back up. "I shall present these at Court later today, then."

"On another matter, as you know, I've been trying to show Tatsuya-san the ropes at Winter Court lately. I'm sure you must've heard about the attack on Tatsuya-san and his son this morning," Ryoichi said, changing the subject. "The Magistrates have begun an investigation, but for my part, I cannot guess who would have the means and the desire to make such an attack. Crane and Seppun fought against the assassins, so it seems unlikely that Noriko or Tomaru were involved. Gorobei might issue a personal challenge to Tatsuya, but assassins are not his style. Even the Imperial Adviser seems unlikely to me; she is certainly a hard enough woman to contemplate such a thing, but if so, why not send them against one of her more serious rivals?"

"I'm left puzzled as to who could possibly be behind the attack," Ryoichi admitted. "I know neither of us is part of the investigation, but I was hoping, with your greater knowledge of the currents at Court ... would you have any idea who would be likely to do such a thing?"

[Kaiu Masahiko]

Kaiu Masahiko frowned. "Could be any number of people. Just between you and me, my policy is not to trust anyone who's not a Crab. They can all lie to beat the band. But thinking along the lines you've laid out, I would think possibly a lackey of Gorobei or the Advisor, thinking they were doing their guy a favor. Or, possibly, someone who thought they'd be helping the succession get resolved faster, no matter who ends up winning.

There are a few people of power who think that way, but quite a few of them are located elsewhere. Kakita Sorashi, in particular, would probably have solved this succession crisis by now, but she is her own kill team, and unlikely to make use of ronin. Of those that are here, though, Kasuga Izumi would most likely use her own guys and would have been successful, and I think the Scorpion might use a cut-out as a distraction, but would have done it with more finesse and Tatsuya would not be with us now. People I know to have been publicly unhappy with Tatsuya appearing, who feel personal responsibility for the crisis, and therefore a real motive to fix it, and who are not good at killing people, would be a better way of looking at things. A lackey of a Wind is still a possibility, here. One with money. Or we're looking at Lord Ikoma or an Imperial Officer. Or one of their guys."

[Yasuki Ryoichi]

"I have a hard time believing Lord Ikoma was involved, when some of his men died in the attack; we are not friends, but I hadn't thought him so cold. But a hotheaded lackey... that is a good theory," Ryoichi said, nodding. "I heard there's already one duel planned between people whose .. enthusiasm ... for their candidate exceeded their good sense. I'll have to keep that in mind."

"Tensions about the succession are definitely heating up, though," the Yasuki said. "I understand I'm viewed as a Tatsuya partisan now ... which, I cannot deny, considering how much I've tried to help him so far." Ryoichi chuckled ruefully. "The stronger factions seem to back Lady Noriko or Seppun Tomaru, though. Your prediction that Keihime's influence would wane seems to be coming true."

"What do you think will happen next? And, would you have us make any preparations for it?"

[Kaiu Masahiko]

"I know Seppun Sadako is going to try to arrange a negotiated settlement in Otosan Uchi, and I strongly suspect that she will fail. I think it's pretty clear that Lord Hida intends to create a settlement by force if the situation gets too out of hand and starts to threaten our ability to carry out our duty. Which it will, eventually. Which is why we have agreements now for troops in major ports up and down the coast, including in the capital. Preparations for that are well in hand."

"But in between those two things is the window for folks to try to get their guy into the right position and solve it in their own way, which will mean tough times for the northern clans, and maybe tough times for us, if people start to get ideas."

[Yasuki Ryoichi]

"Ahhh. So you think it will come to war in the end?" Ryoichi said, looking very tired now, and a little discouraged. "All these promises of peace that we're making in Court... will they ultimately come to nothing?"

[Kaiu Masahiko]

"Well, I'm not sure, actually. I don't think the clans will necessarily line up and throw themselves at each other unless they have to. We're the most likely ones to do that. The Crane won't want to go there, and they're the only other clan who might be able to pull it off. No, most likely we'll see a lot of houses fight a lot of little wars that claim to be about the succession, and in the chaos that spreads from that, we'll get some real trouble."

[Yasuki Ryoichi]

"I see." The Yasuki looked thoughtful. "Then are we best served supporting Lady Seppun's effort to sort out the succession right away? It might not be too late to throw our weight behind some unity candidate that most of the clans could live with. That might be better than ... disorder."

[Kaiu Masahiko]

"That'd be nice, but who the unity candidate would be is an open question. Folks like this Tomaru dude, but he's an old codger and we don't know much about his kids. Some folks like Noriko, but there's that pesky Crane problem. You like Tatsuya, but he's a ronin. And you know that the Otomo are going to try to buy time, because they're more powerful when the clans all go home."

"But you wouldn't be bringing this up if you didn't have a plan."

[Yasuki Ryoichi]

"Kaiu-dono gives me too much credit," Ryoichi said with a small smile. "I had a plan. I hoped to convince important people that the Empress's acknowledgement of Tatsuya's parentage would make him a legitimate heir - indeed, the heir with the strongest claim. But few have given that as much weight as I would've liked."

"Now, though, it's looking likely that Seppun Tomaru or Lady Noriko have the best chance to win the favor of the Court, if anyone does," he said. "And no doubt if that happens, they would be a fine Emperor or Empress. But I can't help but think the Imperial Adviser, even if her star has dimmed, has a few more tricks up her sleeve. Perhaps some terrible, disqualifying secret that Lady Keihime has been holding in reserve to use against her rivals. In such an event, if the major candidates end up in disarray - perhaps there would be opportunity for the supporters of a scrappy underdog candidate."

"It's not much of a plan," Ryoichi admitted with a rueful smile. "But it's where I'm at right now."